Published on
13 October 2023
-1.64%Carmignac Patrimoine performance in the 3rd quarter of 2023 for the A EUR Share class
-0.67%Reference
indicator’s performance in the 3rd quarter of 2023
+2.74%

1 Year performance
Vs 1.98% for the reference indicator

Over the period, Carmignac Patrimoine recorded a performance of -1.6%, below that of its reference indicator (-0.7%)1.

Market environment during the period

The third quarter of 2023 was marked by an important sell-off on the bond markets, that led to a widening of credit spreads and profit-taking on equity markets.
Indeed, over the period, central bankers maintained an hawkish tone, as illustrated by the additional tightening of the US Federal Reserve, which raised its key rate to 5.5%, and the two increases by the European Central Bank. In addition, the main monetary policymakers reconfirmed an inflation target of 2%, thereby advocating a level of rates "high for longer", which led to a substantial rise in long-term rates since mid-July: 10-year yields are now at their highest levels for over 15 years both in US and in Eurozone.

On the equity front, the S&P 500 peaked on July 31, but has since fallen by approximately 6% to end of the quarter. Valuations have been under pressure following the sell-off in rates: S&P 500 price/earnings ratio (1-Year forward) has dropped from 20x to 18x. However, at the same time, earnings estimates have held steady.
In terms of sector behavior, following the sharp move in rates, bond proxies (utilities and real estate) have performed poorly. At opposite end of the spectrum, energy has benefited from the resurgent oil price, while defensive healthcare have done relatively well.

How did we fare in this context?

During the quarter, the main detractor to the performance of the Fund has been our long duration bias. Indeed, after more than 2 years of sell-off in sovereign bonds, the fund has adopted a strategy aimed at taking advantage of a less favorable economic outlook for the second half of 2023, due to the growing effects of monetary and fiscal tightening on the real economy. Nevertheless, the resiliency of the US economy, and the stickiness of inflation led central bankers to keep an hawkish tone leading to a negative dynamic on the rates front. In this context, our exposure to core sovereign debt in Europe and in the US made a negative contribution to performance.
In the wave of this sell-off in bonds, the Fund suffered from its gold exposure which was affected by higher real rates and from its euro exposure that weighted on the relative performance.
However, our exposure to risky assets through our equity and corporate debt selection had an overall positive contribution to the performance. The credit component was supported by the carry while despite a negative backdrop for equity markets, we managed to generate alpha over the quarter mostly thanks to our stock selection in Healthcare (Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly) as well as some companies like UBS and Schlumberger.

Outlook

We anticipate that the global economy will experience a gradual slowdown in the next six months, as the effects of the recent strong monetary tightening begin to take hold. Typically, it takes between 12 to 18 months for the full economic impact of such measures to be felt. However, the resiliency of the US economy and the probable Chinese stimulus should prevent a sharp collapse of the global economy over the short term. In the meantime, beyond the current cyclical disinflation phase, inflation is expected to persist for an extended period leading to some cautiousness from the Fed.

This scenario argues, first, to maintain a long duration bias within the fund. The end of the hiking cycle is in sight, some central bankers are already showing their willingness to pause in front of the fragility of certain activity indicators. Even more so as the recent selloff of long-end real rates puts an additional pressure on financial conditions that are tightening materially. In addition, the real rates have increased to levels that do not seem sustainable over the medium to long term. The relatively high level of indebtedness of the various economic agents (sovereign and private) does not argue either in favor of keeping interest rates high for long, given the problem of refinancing debts.
This scenario of a soft landing of the economy over the next few months should also remain generally favorable for risky assets such as equity and for carry strategies such as credit on the fixed income bucket. On the equity side, any easing in rates will be positive for equity valuations and, as a result, corporate earnings will once again become the differentiating factor. On this front, selectivity will be key as earnings forecasts for 2024 may still be too optimistic, leaving room for downward revisions.

1Source: Carmignac as at 29/09/2023. Reference indicator: 40% MSCI ACWI (USD) (Reinvested net dividends) + 40% ICE BofA Global Government Index (USD) + 20% ESTER capitalised. Quarterly rebalanced.

Source: Carmignac, 29/09/2023, portfolio composition may vary over time. Carmignac Patrimoine, A EUR Acc. 1) Reference indicator: 40% MSCI ACWI (USD) (Reinvested net dividends) + 40% ICE BofA Global Government Index (USD) + 20% ESTER capitalised. Quarterly rebalanced. Until 31 December 2012, the reference indicators' equity indices were calculated ex-dividend. Since 1 January 2013, they have been calculated with net dividends reinvested. Until 31 December 2020, the bond index was the FTSE Citigroup WGBI All Maturities Eur. Until 31 December 2021, the Fund's reference indicator comprised 50% MSCI AC World NR (USD) (net dividends reinvested), and 50% ICE BofA Global Government Index (USD) (coupons reinvested). Performances are presented using the chaining method. From 01/ 01/ 2013 the equity index reference indicators are calculated net dividends reinvested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor).

Carmignac Patrimoine

A turnkey global solution to face various market conditions

Related articles

Marketing communication. Please refer to the KID/KIID, prospectus of the fund before making any final investment decisions. This document is intended for professional clients.

This material may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, without prior authorisation from the Management Company. This material does not constitute a subscription offer, nor does it constitute investment advice. This material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. This material has been provided to you for informational purposes only and may not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or interests referred to herein or for any other purposes. The information contained in this material may be partial information and may be modified without prior notice. They are expressed as of the date of writing and are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Carmignac to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Carmignac, its officers, employees or agents.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged.

Reference to certain securities and financial instruments is for illustrative purposes to highlight stocks that are or have been included in the portfolios of funds in the Carmignac range. This is not intended to promote direct investment in those instruments, nor does it constitute investment advice. The Management Company is not subject to prohibition on trading in these instruments prior to issuing any communication. The portfolios of Carmignac funds may change without previous notice. The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCIS or the manager.

Morningstar Rating™ : © Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; may not be copied or distributed; and is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Access to the Funds may be subject to restrictions regarding certain persons or countries. This material is not directed to any person in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that person’s nationality, residence or otherwise) the material or availability of this material is prohibited. Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access this material. Taxation depends on the situation of the individual. The Funds are not registered for retail distribution in Asia, in Japan, in North America, nor are they registered in South America. Carmignac Funds are registered in Singapore as restricted foreign scheme (for professional clients only). The Funds have not been registered under the US Securities Act of 1933. The Funds may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, for the benefit or on behalf of a «U.S. person», according to the definition of the US Regulation S and FATCA.
The risks, fees and ongoing charges are described in the KID (Key Information Document). The KID must be made available to the subscriber prior to subscription. The subscriber must read the KID. Investors may lose some or all their capital, as the capital in the funds are not guaranteed. The Funds present a risk of loss of capital.

The Funds’ prospectus, KIDs, NAVs and annual reports are available at www.carmignac.com, or upon request to the Management Carmignac Portfolio refers to the sub-funds of Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, an investment company under Luxembourg law, conforming to the UCITS Directive. The French investment funds (fonds communs de placement or FCP) are common funds in contractual form conforming to the UCITS or AIFM Directive under French law.

  • In France, Luxembourg, Sweden: The risks, fees and ongoing charges are described in the KID (Key Information Document). The KID must be made available to the subscriber prior to subscription. The subscriber must read the KID. Investors may lose some or all their capital, as the capital in the funds are not guaranteed. The Funds present a risk of loss of capital. The Funds’ prospectus, KIDs, NAV and annual reports are available at www.carmignac.com, or upon request to the Management.

  • In the United Kingdom: the Funds’ respective prospectuses, KIIDs and annual reports are available at www.carmignac.co.uk, or upon request to the Management Company, or for the French Funds, at the offices of the Facilities Agent at BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES SERVICES, operating through its branch in London: 55 Moorgate, London EC2R. This document was prepared by Carmignac Gestion, Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg or Carmignac UK Ltd. FP Carmignac ICVC (the “Company”) is an Investment Company with variable capital incorporated in England and Wales under registered number 839620 and is authorised by the FCA with effect from 4 April 2019 and launched on 15 May 2019. FundRock Partners Limited is the Authorised Corporate Director (the “ACD”) of the Company and is authorised and regulated by the FCA. Registered Office: Hamilton Centre, Rodney Way, Chelmsford, Essex, CM1 3BY, UK; Registered in England and Wales with number 4162989. Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg SA has been appointed as the Investment Manager and distributor in respect of the Company. Carmignac UK Ltd (Registered in England and Wales with number 14162894) has been appointed as a sub-Investment Manager of the Company and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with FRN:984288.

  • In Switzerland: the prospectus, KIDs and annual report are available at www.carmignac.ch, or through our representative in Switzerland, CACEIS (Switzerland), S.A., Route de Signy 35, CH-1260 Nyon. The paying agent is CACEIS Bank, Montrouge, Nyon Branch / Switzerland, Route de Signy 35, 1260 Nyon.

The Management Company can cease promotion in your country anytime.
Investors have access to a summary of their rights in English on the following links: UK ; Switzerland ; France ; Luxembourg ; Sweden.